The Case for Cutting/Keeping Adam Thielen
K. Joudry
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Shortly after the season ended, Caitlin Thielen suggested that her husband may be moving onto a new team. Very seldom do we see such speculative candour, especially so close to the end of the season. The message was clear: Adam Thielen is looking for his 2023 to go differently from his 2022.
With Brian Flores being brought aboard, the Vikings and their revamped coaching staff will undertake the unenviable task of getting the finances in order before free agency. One player who will inevitably come up is Mr. Thielen, who has been with Minnesota for his entire 9-year career.
What are the arguments for and against moving on from Adam Thielen?
Cutting Adam Thielen
The 2018 season. That was the last time Thielen surpassed 1,000 yards. In 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022, Thielen has been held below the notable benchmark.
Most recently, Thielen piled up 70 receptions (107 targets), 716 yards, and 6 TDs. His 10.2 yards-per-reception average ranked 90th in the NFL. It’s the worst yards-per-reception average of his career.
For a time, it was indisputable that he was among the game’s best receivers. The hometown hero had incredibly sticky hands, compete, and elusiveness. He regularly made contested catches, a reality that many of us took for granted.
In 2022, though, we saw Thielen struggle to continue the trend. He even acknowledged at the beginning of the season that DBs were being physical with him and that he needed to fight through it.
Even when his yards were more modest, Thielen remained a red zone nightmare. He scored 14 TDs in 2020 and then 10 in 2021. During this past season, though, the number dropped to 6.
His yards per target dropped to a career-low 6.7 yards. His passer rating when targeted dropped to 91.5, a sizable decline from the consecutive 119.0 ratings over the past couple seasons. His 42.1 yards per game is his second-lowest average since becoming a starter. It’s a figure that ranks in at 60th in the NFL.
His 65.5 PFF grade is his worst mark since 2015 (a year when he wasn’t yet a starter). He finished the year as the 72nd receiver in the PFF rankings.
Keeping Adam Thielen
Last year, Kevin O’Connell leaned on the veteran for 1042 snaps (a career high). He started all 17 games. Part of the reason why Thielen was on the field so much is because he does the little things right, allowing his teammates to thrive.
Take a peak at a great block to help Alexander Mattison snag a TD:
Thielen demonstrated his ability to win on crossing routes on various occasions, especially when Justin Jefferson was unleashing his gravitational pull on the defensive backs.
O’Connell had Thielen out wide for 763 snaps, in the slot for 320 snaps, and in the backfield for 11. Moving forward, keeping Thielen in the slot may be prudent. The savvy veteran would get the benefit of less imposing corners while being able to work the full field as a chain-moving specialist.
Recently, he even appeared on The Pat McAfee Show. Unsurprisingly, his future with Minnesota came up; Thielen suggested that talks about a new deal are in the works: “We’re working through some stuff ’cause I got a big cap hit.” He goes on to note the March 16th deadline for when his money becomes guaranteed.
He’s the team’s nominee for The Walter Payton Man of the Year Award. He’s a team captain. He’s a hometown kid who has given a ton to the organization. Fans and teammates love him. Coaches, too.
The Final Word
Left unchanged, Adam Thielen’s cap hit will come in just below $20 million in 2023. That’s the second-largest amount on the team.
Kwesi Adofo-Mensah’s task will be to get the finances in order before free agency arrives. We’ve got to assume that Thielen’s deal is going to be something he addresses. Simply cutting the WR would give the Vikings more than $6.4 million in cap space while leaving behind $13.55 million in dead money. A trade would lead to an identical financial result, but it remains to be seen if anyone would be interested in the older receive at such a gaudy cap charge.
More often than not, the issue is that teams are dealing with a bad role rather than a bad player. Expecting Adam Thielen to be the difference maker that he was in 2017 & 2018 may not be feasible any longer. Being a steady, reliable veteran who can move the chains, be an on-field coach, and locker room stalwart may be a better spot for Thielen to be.
If that’s the case, then perhaps the Vikings and Thielen can come to some sort of compromise. If anyone deserves to win a Super Bowl with the purple and gold, it’s Thielen. Don’t be totally surprised if the two sides find a way to continue their longstanding partnership.
Editor’s Note: Information from Pro Football Reference, PFF, and Over the Cap helped with this piece.
