(Psycho) Analyzing the 2022 Vikings Defense
Tom Woldum
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Where the Vikings defense is concerned, in our ongoing love affair with the Vikings, we’re becoming…defensive.
We’ve reached the point in the season where we fans have questioned our relationship with our beloved, and challenged them to make us forget the checkered past by proving that they deserve our trust, by exceeding all of our previous expectations.
They obliged impressively, sprinting to a 10-2 start, making our relationship with them feel almost invincible at times, but never without reminding us of their humanity. Their two lopsided losses were maddening, but almost endearing, as we witnessed their resolve after losing face, coming back strong with victories after both the Philadelphia and Dallas abominations. We’ve come ever so close to handing them our unquestioned, unconditional faith. Almost.
Like any love affair, there’s always, underneath, a layer of insecurity. That insecurity can grow and grow when our chosen partner, in life or in fandom (which may be redundant for some of us), shows us they are worthy of our trust on one day, but then reminds us the next that maybe they’re not capable of not letting us down.
To trust, or not to trust? There comes a time when a relationship needs some professional help. If we fans were going to jam our collective selves into a psychiatrist’s office for some serious couples counseling alongside our favorite football team, there surely wouldn’t be enough room on the couch.
So, let’s excuse the offense, who somehow managed to gain over 400 yards last week without primary linemen Garret Bradbury and soon-to-be-All-Pro Christian Darrisaw. Let’s start with a show of faith and assume those two key cogs will soon return and balance out our run/pass issues without the need for psychoanalysis.
Admit it, Kirk Haters: harping on the Vikings offensive shortcomings right now is a little bit like being married to Bill Cosby and grousing that he’s not as handsome as Denzel Washington. There are deeper issues at play here.
It’s the defense. It’s always been the defense. If we’re going to work on our trust issues with this group of Vikings—if we’re going to truly believe that they can make a playoff run, not just an appearance—we’re going to need to trust the players and coaches from the defensive side of the ball. When we all get together and look at our therapist and ask him to fix us, he’s going to want to dig into our own emotional frailty, and into the Vikings defense.
He’ll dig below the surface, where emotions are raw. He’ll dig below the surface, where emotions are raw. He’ll ask why we have no faith in team that has gone 10-3. It would seem, he might say, like this squad has done everything it can to satisfy your needs, why ever wouldn’t you trust them?
And then we’ll throw it all out there. How they have given up over 400 yards in each of their past five games. How they pat us on the head dismissively and look us right in the eye, saying, “you just don’t understand us. We have a bend-but-don’t-break approach, it’ll all be fine—you wait and see.”
How they rank dead last in the NFL in total yards allowed and total passing yards allowed. How difficult it is to buy into the bend-don’t-break credo when only seven teams have allowed more points, and those teams have a 33-57-1 combined record.
That’s when the shrink will look at the Vikings defense and tell them, “These are some valid points”, and suggest they look inside themselves, and identify some things that they can work on to be a better partner. To make themselves a better defense. To thrive and reach the goals that we have together.
“OK, doc,” they’ll say, feigning a willingness to admit to their flaws. “What do you want me to work on?” As if they don’t already know. Then the shrink will look at us and say, “well, fans, what do you think the Vikings defense should work on?”
This is why it’s important to think this through ahead of time—for when you find yourself squashed together in a psychiatrist’s office with the entire defensive unit of your favorite professional sports team. I for one have thought it through ever since it became apparent early in the second half of last week’s game that the Lions were the better team at Ford Field.
Some of these things can be addressed now and are on Head Coach Kevin O’Connell and Defensive Coordinator Ed Donatell. Others will need to be addressed in the offseason, where Kwesi Adopho-Mensa will need to act with urgency. There are five questions that come to mind that the Vikings defense need to answer:
Where is the pressure?
Za’Darius Smith managed 3 quarterback pressures against Detroit last week—his contribution constituted exactly half of the team’s output. Only eight teams managed fewer than the Viking’s, six pressures—and four of them (Cowboys, Jets, Giants, Cardinals) were anomalies—each are in the league’s top ten for Pressure Percentage on the season.
The Vikings, on the other hand, are 24th in that category. It’s probably no coincidence that they are also 24th in Blitz Percentage – blitz pct, 24th in Pressure Pct. If the Vikings look within themselves for a way to improve their pressure on the opposing quarterbacks, they’ll need to either: a) increase their use of the blitz in an aggressive fashion, or b) clone Za’Darius Smith—he’s sixth in the NFL in this category.
Danielle Hunter is 25th but did most of his damage in the middle third of the season—a four-game stretch where he averaged three per game; in the 9 games before and after that stretch he’s averaged a pedestrian one Pressure per game. The Vikings defense need to work on their pressure—opposing quarterbacks are simply looking far too comfortable in recent games.
Are the young DBs capable?
The duo of Harrison Smith and Patrick Peterson are a coach’s dream: seasoned veterans who know where to be in almost any situation, who have a knack for making big plays at important times in the game, and who can lead and inspire the gaggle of youngsters and lightly seasoned young veterans who join them in the secondary.
Subtract either one—as happened last week when Smith was unable to go against the Lions—and things start falling apart quickly. 24-year-olds Cam Bynum and Cameron Dantzler have both showed flashes of brilliance this year—but they are prone to mistakes, as most younger players are. Pro Football Focus grades each near 60 this year, a “yellow” middle-of-the-road rating.
The same can be said for those behind them: two more 24-years-olds (Josh Metellus, and Theo Jackson, who has not seen playing time as of yet) and a couple of those 26-year-old veterans (Duke Shelley, Chandon Sullivan, who have each graded out similar to Bynum and Dantzler according to PFF) comprise the second unit.
PFF likes what they see in Metellus, but the former 6th rounder out of Michigan lines up at strong safety behind Smith—when they’re healthy there’s not much playing time to give the promising youngster. The Vikings need to find some way to help them accelerate their learning curve. We need them to grow up very, very quickly.
Is bend-don’t-break a viable strategy?
It could be a stroke of brilliance; it could be a brilliant ruse. Muhammad Ali made a career out of the rope-a-dope, a bend-don’t-break strategy that wore out his opponents after a few rounds of excited over-exertion. Indeed, the Vikings have enjoyed a tremendous fourth-quarter advantage over their opponents this year, with the second-most fourth-quarter points in the league, while ranking in the top-10 in fewest yards allowed.
And of course, the weekly fourth-quarter comebacks that have thrilled us all while pushing us to the brink of a heart attack may well be fueled by Ed Donatell’s rope-a-dope defense. But seriously, is this advisable to allow our opponents ride roughshod against us for much of the game, all in the name of wearing them out in the end?
The strategy is questionable against any team in the league…and, as we found out against Philadelphia and Dallas, suicidal against a strong opponent who is locked into their own offensive flow. If the Vikings defense looks deep within themselves, they have to know this is pure folly.
And, if we look deep within ourselves, we already know that bend-don’t-break just an excuse meant to cover up a subpar defense. No, doctor, we can’t accept this line of reasoning forever. Only as long as it works—and Detroit hinted to us a week ago that this party may be over. The Vikings (an in particular Defensive Coordinator Ed Donatell) need to work on developing a better strategy, or else a better set of excuses. Or both.
What’s Ed Donatell’s exit strategy?
He was hired to re-engineer the Vikings defense towards the latest trends and away from Mike Zimmer’s old-school hard-knocks approach. More than just a 3-4 vs. 4-3 shift, Donatell’s system really did strip things back to the studs.
Some players have thrived, others have stalled out under the weight of it all, and Danielle Hunter seemingly does both, sometimes within the same game. But what about results? The 400-yards per game trend simply has to stop, and it’s squarely on Donatell to ensure that it does. If the trend continues, there’s no way the Vikings thrive in the post-season, and there’s no way Donatell hangs onto his job in 2023.
What’s Kwesi Adopho-Mensa’s next move?
A long season reveals each team’s strengths and reveals each team’s weaknesses. The Minnesota general manager doesn’t need to get out a microscope to see what has been revealed this year. He has to know that there’s a lot more work to be done on the Vikings defense after the season.
With its four best players (Harrison Smith, Patrick Peterson, Za’Darius Smith and Eric Kendricks) all on the wrong side of thirty, Adofo-Mensah has to be pondering how he and his staff can mine the draft, free agency, and/or the trade market while simultaneously gazing into the crystal ball and forecasting which of the youngsters to bank on for future growth, and on which to cut bait.
Throw in a Vikings future salary cap situation that cap-tracking website overthecap.com has seemingly named its site after—Minnesota sits at #28 among the 32 teams in projected cap space, currently underwater at negative-$5 million.
Before this season, he could play the “new guy” card (and the “hey, the previous regime put me in salary ap purgatory” card), but next year he’ll be expected to find the answers, make the changes, patch the holes, and show us the way. Unless, of course, this year’s squad finds a way to go deep into the playoffs despite all these defensive flaws—in that event, he’ll be able to continue to play any card he wants. But the underlying problems aren’t going away.
The fact that a 10-3 team has to answer these questions is a clear indicator that there’s something very wrong here. Is it the deep-seated insecurity of a too-often scarred fanbase? Or proof-positive that a tiger can’t change its stripes? Maybe only Nostradamus or a licensed therapist could tell us that right now, but we’ll all find out come playoff time.
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