The Skol Debate: Can the Vikings Make a Deep Playoff Run with their Defense?
K. Joudry
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The Vikings defense has fallen short of expectations in 2022.
Even still, the team sits atop the NFC North with their impressive 9-2 record. Unless something truly unforeseen happens, Minnesota will represent the division in the playoffs. Heck, they may even be capable of going on a deep playoff run.
The concern, though, is whether the Vikings defense could hinder such a run. The debaters are back to take the topic on, asking, “can the Vikings make a deep playoff run with their defense?” Take a look at where they stand:
The Purple Corner: Josh Frey (Yeah, I think so)
The Gold Corner: K. Joudry (It’s looking unlikely)
With that in mind, the debate.
Is the Vikings Defense Good Enough for a Playoff Run?
KJ: Well, Josh, we took a bit of a break but we’re back with a topic that ought to be at the forefront of many people’s minds: how should we understand this defense? More specifically, do we think it’s good enough for Minnesota to make a deep playoff run?
Words that have come to mind at various points watching the defense: uninspired, bland, unaggressive, passive, predictable. Now, that’s not to say that there haven’t been positives, but this is a defense that has fallen short in 2022.
One debate that has been settled is whether or not the Vikings are a good team. After 12 weeks and 11 games, we know that they are. In fact, we know that they’re among the league’s best teams. Even still, there is some doubt, and some wonder about a defensive doomsday in the playoffs.
Before going too far down that path, though, perhaps I should kick it over. Josh, you’re feeling more optimistic. Why is that? What are you seeing with the defense?
JF: Well, first and foremost, I think we need to see this group get healthy again. They’ve gone through a brutal stretch where they played three games in 12 days, all against opponents with records above .500.
In fact, even the week before that, they played an opponent in the Washington Commanders that would be on a seven-game winning streak if it weren’t for the Vikings. Keeping this in mind, going 3-1 during this four-week period, even with a struggling defense, is extremely impressive.
After a long weekend, it appears that the group is starting to get healthier, too, especially in the secondary. Minnesota has missed their CB2 Cam Dantzler for this entire three-game stretch, and Akayleb Evans missed both games on the short week against Dallas and New England.
Because of that, rookie Andrew Booth Jr. was forced into a starting role for the first time in his career, and then Duke Shelley made his first start of the season after being a practice squad guy for much of the year.
That’s not going to be a recipe for success against anybody, let alone against some of the best teams in the NFL. Toss in the fact that Dalvin Tomlinson has been out since Week 9 and, in my mind at least, it’s no wonder that this group has struggled at times to stop teams.
Especially after a few promising updates from head coach Kevin O’Connell about some of these injured Vikings, and considering only one of Minnesota’s final six opponents rank among the top 15 in points scored this year, I think they’ll be able to get on track down the stretch heading into the playoffs.
What’s holding you back from joining me on this bandwagon?
KJ: My main concern rests not in the fact that they’ve struggled but, rather, in how they’ve struggled. Far too often, we’ve seen this Vikings defense give up yards with an ease that is quite disconcerting.
New England, for instance, couldn’t get anything going the week before the Minnesota game. Against the Vikings, though, and it was so simple to move the ball, especially through the air. Mac Jones shredded the team for 382 yards. Yes, some of that is due to injury concerns, and yet we can’t overlook the non-existent pass rush and the scheme that allowed Hunter Henry to take a leisurely stroll into the endzone. New England had 5 receivers who had a catch go for more than 25 yards (as Sam pointed out to me on Notes from the North). That kind of balanced explosiveness made them really difficult to stop.
The week before, it was an embarrassing effort against the Cowboys. Neither the run nor the pass defense were anywhere close to good enough. Tony Pollard scorched the defense, picking up huge yardage as both a runner and receiver.
At present, the Vikings defense comes in at 21st in the NFL in terms of points allowed: 23.4 per game. They’ve allowed the third most yards among NFL defenses. The problem is particularly bad through the air: they’ve allowed 3037 passing yards, the 2nd-worst mark in the NFL.
Minnesota will almost certainly be a playoff team. Once there, they’ll be tasked with taking down the best teams that the 2022 NFL has to offer. Do you have concerns about this squad’s ability to hang with an offense like San Francisco’s or Philadelphia’s?
JF: There certainly must be some concern anytime anyone goes against these teams, especially considering the fact that the Vikings have already lost once to the Eagles this season.
If we look at the Eagles as well, their defense has not exactly been spectacular recently, either. Over the past three weeks, they’ve allowed 27 points per game, and they just let the Packers score 33 points on Sunday night. This was the highest total that Green Bay has scored all season.
As for San Francisco, their calling card is playing tough, physical football. The Patriots are the same sort of team, especially on defense, and the Vikings just put 33 points on the board against them. This was largely a result of Kirk Cousins playing a fabulous game.
Additionally, even when the Vikings defense has struggled throughout the year, they’ve always stepped up when it matters. The Vikings have allowed the fourth-fewest fourth quarter points this season (3.9 per game), and they held the Patriots scoreless during the fourth on Thanksgiving.
Meanwhile, the Vikings are the single-best scoring offense in the fourth quarter (8.5 points per game). Kirk Cousins and this group have proven that they can go out and get the job done when given an opportunity. As long as they keep a game relatively close going into that fourth quarter, I have confidence that this team is capable of getting the job done, regardless of the opponent.
Does this success in the fourth quarter quell any of your fears?
KJ: The fourth-quarter success is a vital ingredient in Minnesota’s winning formula. My concern, though, rests in the belief that this team is playing with fire.
For the most part, being able to step up when needed is a sound strategy. Sure, there may be bumps in the road and the occasional coverage lapse, but the defense elevates in crunch time. We saw this purple elevation during the Patriots game. After Jones stayed upright all game, the Vikings suddenly found some pass rushing ability, largely contributing to their ability to hang on for the 33-26 victory. Credit to Ross Blacklock and Danielle Hunter for getting a pair of sacks. Credit to Donatell for continuing to work with the Vikings defense.
My question is whether they can rely on this strategy to win a Super Bowl. I understand that speaking about the Lombardi feels a touch premature, and yet we must consider that this is a team that entered the year with the goal of competing for it all. Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and Kevin O’Connell were given a pretty clear mandate to gear up for contention in their first year on the job.
Climbing to a 9-2 record has done little to obscure the goal. On the contrary, the team’s Super Bowl aspirations are alive and well. This is a playoff team, one that could plausibly finish as the NFC’s #1 team.
We thus bring things back to the defense and the chances of a deep playoff push. What happens if/when a defense finds a way to really fluster Kirk Cousins (i.e. Dallas)? Can the defense keep the team in it as O’Connell finds an adjustment that works? What about the varied and versatile attack coming out of San Francisco? Does Donatell have an answer for Deebo, McCaffrey, Kittle, and their various other weapons? Will the Vikings be able to slow down Jalen Hurts the runner and passer?
I guess what I keep coming back to is the reality that this is a defense that has been easy to pass on. They have given up the 2nd most passing yards in the NFL at a time when passing is the dominant part of football (insert “it’s a passing league” quip here). Being among the worst NFL teams at stopping the most important thing an offense does seems like a massive hurdle for playoff football.
In the end, I don’t think I’ve seen enough to head into the heavyweight fights with the confidence that an impressive offense will be enough to finally end the curse. The one remedy that would inspire confidence is a truly sensational pass rush. If, somehow, the team found a way to ignite that pass rush, then I could be persuaded that the defense has enough ability to help push this team really far following the regular season.
JF: I’d agree that, especially against the Eagles and 49ers, we probably should be nervous about taking those teams on as anyone in the NFL should. The Vikings undoubtedly would be underdogs against either of these teams.
That said, any team in the NFL should be nervous about playing the Vikings, too. All season long we’ve seen them find ways to win games, and they’ve earned their way to a 9-2 record this season.
In the end, with Cam Dantzler and Akayleb Evans set to come back, I don’t think the Vikings pass defense is enough to write them off as a contender for the NFC, especially considering that their run defense has been one of the better groups in the NFL.
I suppose there’s no way to know which one of us will be correct, until we actually get to January.
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